| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Texas State | 27-52 | 1208.9 | -11.8 | 1197.1 | 18.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Long Island University | 23-28 | 1197.1 | +0.0 | 1197.1 | 14.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Kentucky | 23-48 | 1197.1 | -10.7 | 1186.4 | 16.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Louisiana | 34-31 | 1186.4 | +63.2 | 1249.6 | 20.1% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Central Michigan | 13-24 | 1249.6 | -31.7 | 1217.9 | 45.0% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Buffalo | 30-31 | 1217.9 | -23.3 | 1194.6 | 34.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 16-10 | 1194.6 | +46.9 | 1241.5 | 37.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Miami (OH) | 30-44 | 1241.5 | -10.7 | 1230.8 | 16.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Ohio | 21-28 | 1230.8 | -13.8 | 1217.0 | 12.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 27-21 | 1217.0 | +38.1 | 1255.1 | 47.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Ball State | 24-9 | 1255.1 | +46.0 | 1301.1 | 53.8% |
| 15 | Nov 25 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 21-31 | 1301.1 | -28.6 | 1272.5 | 27.0% |